Maybe it’s cabin fever, or maybe it’s just because I’ve always been a contrary SOB, but am I the only one who’s grown tired of listening to the so-called experts who every day inflict on us the latest predictions of sickness and death from the Wuhan virus? Don’t get me wrong, these are good people with good intentions, but what is it they say about the road to Hell? Yes, the virus is a clear and present danger to public health, no doubt about it. And yes, all Americans should be proud of the way the federal government has handled this crisis. (Wow, I never thought those words would come out of my mouth). And yes, it was necessary to impose restrictions on travel and assembly, but what restrictions, and for how long? The type of restrictions were tried and true. In 1918, in the wake of the Spanish flu, schools and places of public congregation were closed, and social distancing and hand washing were ordered. Sound familiar? The experts said those measures were effective, and yet more than 50 million people died world-wide; 675,000 in the U.S. That experience is what caused today’s public health experts to close down all of society. They say there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. The statisticians have taken charge of our world. The problem, however, is GIGO – garbage in, garbage out. Data is plugged into models, the models inform the medical experts, the experts ring the alarm bells, and the politicians react. It all goes back again to the Spanish flu, which had a mortality rate of 2.5%. So, 2.5%, social distancing, hand washing, closures, and over 50 million people died. Enter the Wuhan virus. The “experts” said in January, February, and March that the death rate was 3 to 4%. They warned about limited testing, people with the virus being asymptomatic, and kept saying the denominator would go up. (I always hated math). Dr. Birx, who has been a treasure, and seems to be quite reasonable, comes on TV every night, and regales us with tales of granular data and logarithmic progressions, then she smiles, our eyes roll back in our heads, and there’s another question about ventilators. The problem is that, because the virus came from China, and because the Chinese method of reporting public health statistics is “Lie, lie, then blame America,” much of the data that went into the models, that caused the medical experts to ring the alarm bells, and forced politicians to shut it all down, was dead wrong. I mean, I’m not an expert by any means, but when, over the course of two months, China reports 81,000 cases nationwide, and 32 or 35 new cases per day, even I know that has to be bullshit. I’m not blaming the medical people. And after being assured of an impending armageddon, you can’t blame the politicians for taking their advice. Let’s lay the blame right where it belongs – on the media. In their defense, there were early reports of a horrific death toll. The model of Professor Neil Ferguson of the British Imperial College claimed 500,000 would die in the United Kingdom and 2.2 million would die in the United States. This “worst case” scenario was all the media needed. If it bleeds, it leads, and what could be better than “millions dead?” But although Professor Ferguson has repeatedly revised the death toll down, the media keeps predicting the end of the world. Ferguson cut the number of British deaths in half, then scaled it back again, to under 20,000 deaths in Britain. Our CDC also got into the act. In late March, the CDC models predicted up to 240,000 deaths in the U.S. People like Dr. Fauci told us we had to extend the lockdowns because of the models. But, with his next breath, Dr. Fauci also said, “I’ve looked at all the models. I’ve spent a lot of time on the models. They don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models.” Huh? Yet last week, Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci said that they expect between 100,000 and 200,000 fatalities, based on the IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) model. IHME then said 81,00 deaths in the U.S. As of April 7, IHME predicted 60,000 deaths. Co-founder of The Federalist, Sean Davis, examined the IHME Coronavirus model and called it “garbage.” We are in the midst of the week that IHME predicted to be the peak of the curve that we have been implored to “flatten.” IHME predicted each State’s needs for hospital and ICU beds. New York was predicted to need 50,962 hospital beds this week. This model prompted Governor Cuomo’s constant pleas for ventilators, and President Trump’s nightly tallies of how many ventilators had been shipped to NY. Apparently, Trump sent so many ventilators, that on April 6, Cuomo finally admitted he didn’t need any more. Luckily the model was wrong again. Things in NY are very bad, but as of April 6, only 18,368 were hospitalized, and the Governor reported on April 7, that hospitalizations continued to decline. Despite that, the IHME model still said NY would run out of hospital beds on April 8. Wrong again. As for other States, the model has been equally inaccurate. The model overestimated Texas hospitalizations by 88%; by 64% in Georgia; by 50% in Virginia; and by 91% in Tennessee. This is good medical news, but economically, not so much. We shut down our entire economy, because of the models. Millions are out of work, because of the models. Many businesses are never coming back, because of the models. We are fast approaching the point where the politicians will have to thank the doctors, send them back to their labs, and get America back to work. In all likelihood, the death toll from Wuhan will not surpass that of the seasonal flu, which kills 50 to 60 thousand people every year without locking down the entire country. Remember, by now predicting 60,000 deaths, instead of 2.2 million, the models were off by 97.27%. To illustrate, if a contractor gave you an estimate of $60,000 for a job, and later handed you a bill for $2.2 million, you might protest. You know, and I know that, whenever Trump ends the restrictions, someone will die from the Wuhan virus, and the media will say Trump killed him. So what? It’s already started. A week ago, imbecile Chuck Todd asked that other imbecile, Joe Biden, if Trump had blood on his hands. That will continue. Who cares? The experts were wrong, and this madness needs to stop. To quote Popeye, “That’s all we can stands, we can’t stands no more.”
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