The period between the end of the political conventions and the official start of the presidential campaigns after Labor Day sometimes is referred to as “the silly season.”  With the contest over early for the Republican presidential nomination, we seem to have entered a Spring-time political silly season, as we are being treated to endless columns and articles listing potential running mates for Donald Trump.  Most of these offerings consist of listings of the usual suspects, running the gamut from the logical to the ridiculous.  It’s really gotten pretty tiresome.  So here’s one more.  The last listing I saw was broken down into categories of “Yes, I’d accept;” “I might accept;” and “No way.”  Politicians claim all the time that they have no interest in being Vice-President, a position that Vice-President John Nance Garner once declared was “not worth a warm bucket of piss.”  But when the chips are down, very few are able to resist.  Even the truly reluctant, such as Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson, succumbed to the argument that they must serve to ensure Party unity.  Those two eventually inherited the top job.  This year another dynamic is in play.  Because Trump is an outsider (meaning far outside the Republican Establishment), potential running mates have the added concern of not wanting to anger the Party powers that be, for fear that a connection to Trump will doom future chances for advancement.  This is not an idle fear.  Trump often is criticized for failing to hire some of the more accomplished political operatives to work on his campaign.  One of the reasons that he hasn’t done so is that the Republican Establishment (those people who keep telling us they don’t exist) has issued very real warnings to potential Trump staffers to the effect that “if you go to work for Trump, you’ll never work in this town again.”  That’s caused what is known in the legal community as “a chilling effect” on potential Trump hires.  The problem is that nobody, and in this I include the Establishment people (who rarely are right) and the pollsters (who usually are right), has any real idea how Trump will fare in November.  The pundits laughed Trump off last June, and wrote him off all Winter, but come the Spring, and Trump has had the last laugh.  Should Trump win, his Vice-President will have the inside track to the White House, should he lose big, the running mate will only be remembered for the insulting Saturday Night Live skits.  It’s a problem.  History suggests that Trump can’t pull this off, but again, this year seems to be the exception to the rule.  Nobody knows.

Let’s start with the “Hell no” list – Most of the names make sense, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker – too much trash talk during the primaries, and in some cases real hatred, to pick any of these.  New Mexico Governor Susanna Martinez said through a spokesperson, “the governor has said over the years that she’s not interested in serving as Vice-President.”  I don’t think she’s been asked.  She’s not a bad choice, a Hispanic female.  John Kasich claims he’s not interested.  Frankly, I don’t think he would take much convincing.  He’s got the combination of Washington and executive experience that would be useful.

Let’s go to the “Yes” list:                                                                                    Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich – not a good idea.   He’s divisive, and we already have Trump for that; and he’s older than Trump.  Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama.  Good man, but I’d rather have a conservative in the Senate, there are so few left.  Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin – possibly.  Rick Perry of Texas – a fine communicator with unimpeachable conservative credentials.  Former Arizona Governor Jan Brewer – I like her, but I don’t think that a Tag Team of candidates who will be bashed over immigration is a good idea.

Now the “Maybes:”  Senators Joni Ernst (Iowa) and Tom Cotton (Arkansas) – both first term Senators, not experienced enough.  Sarah Palin – Once was more than enough for me, “you betcha.”  Chris Christie – Not only no, but hell no, for several good reasons.  If you want an attack dog to do the dirty work while the nominee stays above the fray (think Spiro Agnew, minus the bribes), he fits that bill.  However, Trump is never above the fray.  And, once again, history intrudes on this scenario.  It has been 100 years since a presidential candidate has been elected without winning his own State.  That was Woodrow Wilson in 1916.  (I don’t count Richard Nixon in this.  In 1968, he lived in New York because he worked there, but he had never run for office anywhere else but California).  Since 1916, the record is pretty bleak.  Al Gore would have been President had he carried Tennessee in 2000.  Most recently, Mitt Romney showed us what happens to Northeastern Republicans.  Maybe Trump is different, I don’t know, but I do know he’s not going to carry New York, so he’s bucking a 100 year old trend.  It makes no sense to pick a running mate who’s also not going to help him carry New Jersey.

So, the F on F consensus is, in this order:  Susanna Martinez; John Kasich; Rick Perry; Mary Fallin; and Jeff Sessions.