There are so many news outlets these days, from print, news networks and internet sources, that you might expect that a subject such as how a political party’s nominating convention works might be clearly explained.  You would be wrong.  The 24-hour news cycle purveyors treat this subject exactly like any other news story, like a plane crash or a terrorist attack.  They sensationalize, they pontificate, they engage in fear-mongering, they obfuscate, they misrepresent or ignore the facts to fit their agendas; they do everything but explain what really is not a complicated subject.  All day and night, the media wrings its hands and alternately decries and promotes the prospect of a contested convention, or dare they hope, a brokered convention.  We are told such an outcome might tear apart the Republican party.  Oh woe is us.  Wouldn’t we be better off just to hand the nomination to whoever has a plurality of the delegates going into the convention?  Indeed, isn’t that the only fair thing to do?  “No” and “No.”  You see, in most election years there is one candidate who comes out of the primaries with a majority of the delegates necessary to be nominated for President.  In those cases, the result of the convention is a forgone conclusion.  The media is accustomed to that result.  This year may be the exception to the rule.  There is a very good chance that no Republican candidate will enter the July convention with a majority of the delegates.  What then will result is what the media likes to call a contested convention.  In reality, what will result is merely “a convention.”  There will be 2,472 delegates to the convention chosen in the various primaries and caucuses.  The Republican Party has rules in place which govern the conduct of the convention.  In order to be nominated,  a candidate needs a majority of these delegates, or 1,237.  Now, Donald Trump, the current front-runner in the delegate count, may be unaware of this rule.  It is entirely possible that Trump knows as much about the rules of the Republican Party as he knows about any other subject, which is to say, not much.  I say this because, at the last debate (the last one Ducking Donald agreed to attend), Trump said something about “this random 1,237 number.”  No Donald, it’s not a random number, it’s simple arithmetic.

But woe is us, what if no candidate has the 1,237?  That might lead to a brokered convention.  Mayhem would ensue.  The media would like that.  Fighting at the convention.  That would make a good story.  You see, that’s how we got Obama.  In 2008, Hillary had the nomination locked up, or so she believed.  The first female President was a good story.  The media was “ready for Hillary.”  But wait, Obama emerged (from under a rock in Chicago), and all of a sudden, the first black President was even a better story, and Hillary was swept aside.  The media continues to indulge in wild speculation.  Maybe Romney will be nominated, maybe it will be Paul Ryan.  John Kasich feeds this speculation, because he keeps telling anyone who will sit still long enough to hear it, that he will be the nominee.  Here’s how it works.  Republican party Rule 40 says that, in order to have your name placed in nomination at the convention, a candidate must have won the support of a majority of delegates in at least 8 states.  Only Trump and Ted Cruz meet that requirement.  But can’t that rascally Republican Establishment change the rules?  Yes, but the change must be voted on by the delegates, nearly all of whom are, or will be, committed to either Trump or Cruz.

The situation we face now is hardly unique.  Gerald Ford was the sitting President of the United States in 1976.  Ford came to the convention with a plurality of the delegates, but not enough to be nominated, just like Trump in 2016.  President Ford was not handed the nomination simply because he was ahead.  Ford managed to get the support of enough uncommitted delegates to be nominated, beating Ronald Reagan by 117 votes.  Ford made deals in 1976.  Today, we have master deal-maker Trump in the lead.  Surely he can make a “great deal” to garner the necessary support.  If he can’t make the “great deal” necessary to win the nomination, then what good is the Art of the Deal?   If no candidate gets to 1,237 on the first ballot, chaos does not reign.  A second ballot is taken, at which time the delegates are no longer committed to any candidate.  In other words, there will be another opportunity for the right candidate to make to make a “great deal.”  Trump fears the art of that deal because nearly two thirds of Republican voters don’t want him to be the nominee of our Party.  If Trump fails to win the nomination despite coming into the convention with a plurality of delegates, no matter what the media tells you, he will not be the first candidate to share that fate, he is, however, likely to be the loudest.